A supermajority of Americans support ditching the Electoral College in favor of using popular vote, yet few in the mainstream media have taken the idea seriously. But now, thanks to the unlikely coalition of Democrats and Republicans driving a fresh round of advocacy, it’s becoming a regular topic of debate over at The Washington Post and on liberal and conservative cable news networks.
There has been good reason to be skeptical about the campaign to institute a national popular vote. The two main routes of doing this would be to amend the Constitution—the best way—or by states joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. In the latter route, once states with a combined 270 electoral votes join the compact, they give those votes to the winner of the national popular vote in an election, essentially rendering the Electoral College irrelevant.
Either route would require the participation of at least some red states, though. And why would they go along with it when Republican presidential candidates have won the popular vote only twice since 1992 but won four presidential elections?
However, President Donald Trump’s popular-vote victory last year now has some Republicans wondering whether he could claim victory for dismantling the Electoral College once and for all.
Some Republican strategists also see in the national popular vote a powerful tool for holding lawmakers to their values—in this case, holding accountable Republicans who make big promises on the campaign trail only to abandon their constituents once ensconced in office.
“I’m sick of candidates campaigning at Bob Jones University in the primary and then pivoting in the general election, running to the middle and battleground states,” said Patrick Rosenstiel, a Republican strategist and senior consultant to the nonprofit National Popular Vote organization. “In a national popular vote for president, you need the base to show up in all 50 states. I believe this is a center-right country, and I am not afraid of conservative ideas.”
Enthusiasm is also rising among influential Democrats in response to an establishment effort to dump social issues from the party agenda and pivot to the center. That effort was on full display this week when potential presidential candidate Rahm Emanuel, a former mayor of Chicago, blasted the Democratic brand as “weak and woke” before urging the Democrats to appeal to more conservative voters by rushing rightward on social issues.
But as advocates for the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact are quick to mention, a national popular vote means progressive voters in blue states have a political voice that better matches their large numbers. Suddenly, those “toxic” social issues Emanuel whines about may become valuable political assets when liberal cities can speak as loudly as rural conservative states.
It’s also worth asking what social issues Democrats are being asked to discard in appealing to more conservative voters. Advocates of the pivot-to-the-center approach might have Democrats shut their mouths about Trump’s lawless deportationsfor fear of alienating a voter who supports state-sanctioned kidnappings.
A recent poll from SSRS for CNN confirms that most Americans (52%) think the Trump administration has gone too far in its deportation agenda. Unfortunately, many of those Americans live in red states, where their votes don’t meaningfully affect the outcome of a presidential election. A national popular vote would flip that math on its head, advocates argue.
Even the Democratic National Committee can find something to love in a national popular vote. When every vote is equally relevant, it no longer matters if a state Democratic committee is located in a deep red state. Those voters have as much power to shift the margin of a presidential election as any other voter—and parties thus have a major incentive to increase investment in local party infrastructure and candidate recruitment. Think of former DNC Chairman Howard Dean’s “50-State Strategy” on steroids.
“By its very definition, NPV will make every voter in every precinct relevant, reinvigorating grassroots politics, strengthening local parties, and empowering the base in every state,” Alyssa Cass, Democratic consultant and strategic adviser to National Popular Vote, told Daily Kos. “Rather than letting the debate over whether to move left or move center play out from the top down, the party’s destiny should be determined by actual Democratic voters deciding which policies, ideas, and candidates they prefer.”
Instead of tearing itself apart with another failed pivot to the right, the Democratic Party can instead rally behind implementing a national popular vote. As of Friday, 17 states and the District of Columbia have passed national-popular-vote laws, leaving the effort just 61 electoral votes shy of its 270 goal.
Advocates see opportunities in seven states where bills have passed at least one state legislative chamberincluding red states like Arkansas and Oklahoma as well as in and crucial swing states Arizona, Michigan, and Virginia. Those would be more than enough to push the effort over its goal and force a real conversation about the shape of the 2028 presidential contest.
After years of skewed national politics, what our republic needs more than anything is a return to real representation. Democrats should be leading that conversation.
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